$4000 at risk: Gold sellers refuse to give up amid hot US inflation, Mideast tensions

 Gold pauses its recovery from seven-month lows of $4,024 in Wednesday’s Asian trading, after facing fresh offers above the $4,100 level. Gold sellers refuse to give up despite the continued hostilities in the Middle East.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,062.56, extending a bearish phase as spot gold holds well below its key moving averages. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,444.89 and the 200-day SMA at $4,446.35 form an immediate resistance band overhead, while the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, at $4,593.14 and $4,773.95 respectively, reinforce a broader topside cap and suggest rallies are likely to be sold. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 23.79 sits in oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet signaling a clear reversal.

Adding credence to the bearish potential, the 21-day SMA is on the verge of cutting the 200-day SMA from above, indicating an impending Bear Cross.

On the topside, initial resistance is clustered around the 21-day SMA at $4,444.89 and the 200-day SMA at $4,446.35; a daily close above this area would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure and allow a corrective recovery toward the 50-day SMA at $4,593.14. Further up, the 100-day SMA at $4,773.95 stands as a more distant barrier that maintains the broader bearish structure while price trades beneath it, leaving the path of least resistance still pointing lower unless these levels are reclaimed

Gold plummets below $4,200 amid US‑Iran tensions ahead of US CPI

 From a technical perspective, the latest leg down confirms a fresh breakdown below a downward-sloping channel extending from the April swing high. Moreover, the precious metal remains entrenched below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), validating the near-term negative outlook and backing the case for further losses.

Moreover, the daily Relative Strength Index (14) near 28 signals oversold conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator deep in negative territory reinforces prevailing bearish momentum. This leaves the Gold price vulnerable to further declines, towards retesting the March swing low, around the $4,100 mark.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the former channel floor around $4,238, followed by the 200-day SMA near $4,444. A recovery back above the latter would begin to ease the broader downside pressure implied by the dominant descending channel and lift the Gold price further to the channel top near $4,546 and the prior swing reference around $4,634

Oil prices fall back after Iran-Israel ceasefire

 The commodity retains a bearish near-term bias below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which acts as the primary topside cap. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line, and a broadly negative profile hints that downside momentum persists. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 suggests subdued demand rather than oversold conditions.

The aforementioned technical setup keeps the door open for further weakness if selling resumes. Meanwhile, the immediate downside focus stays on a strong horizontal support between $86.50 and $86.00. A convincing break below would leave Crude Oil prices vulnerable to renewed selling toward sub-$81.00 levels, or the April monthly swing low.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at $95.25, and bulls would need a sustained recovery above this barrier to ease the prevailing bearish structure on the four-hour chart. Nevertheless, momentum indicators currently argue that rallies are more likely to face selling pressure beneath the medium-term average.

Gold draws support from weaker USD; bulls seem hesitant amid Fed hike bets

 From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown and close below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The subsequent fall, however, showed some resilience near a descending channel support, near $4,270.16. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the said area before positioning for deeper losses.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 35, staying in weak territory without yet signaling an oversold washout. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with subdued momentum, hinting that sellers still have the upper hand but lack aggressive follow-through.

Hence, any recovery attempt is likely to confront stiff resistance near the 200-day SMA at $4,441.10 that bulls would need to reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure, ahead of the channel’s upper boundary around $4,571.21. The latter is a key significant barrier, which should cap the Gold price within a broader bearish structure.

Bitcoin Holds Above $59.1K Low as Short-Term Charts Signal Oversold Bounce Setup

 The 1-hour chart on Bitstamp is showing the most constructive signal of the three timeframes in this analysis. Bitcoin printed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows during the most recent session, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. Price recently tested the $62,950 area before encountering resistance, and immediate support sits at $61,800 with stronger backing in the $60,800 to $61,000 range.

The relative strength index ( RSI) on the shorter timeframe has dropped to 24, a level associated with oversold conditions that historically precede sharp relief moves. However, traders tracking the chart should note that price is approaching resistance after a strong move off the lows, which limits near-term upside conviction without a confirmed close above $62,900 to $63,000.

GBP/USD steadies as increased risk aversion offsets hawkish BoE tone

 From a technical perspective, spot prices hold a capped tone beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and under the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the downfall from the May swing high. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is marginally positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests mild bullish momentum.

That said, momentum indicators have not been sufficient to reclaim the overhead retracement and trend barrier, keeping upside attempts vulnerable for now. Meanwhile, initial resistance is located at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3476, followed closely by the 200-period SMA at 1.3498, with additional hurdles at the 61.8% level at 1.3517 and then 1.3576 and 1.3650.

On the downside, first support emerges at the 38.2% retracement at 1.3435, ahead of the 23.6% level at 1.3384, while a deeper slide would expose the recent swing low area around 1.3302.

USD/JPY retreats from the key 160.00 level on Japanese intervention fears

USD/JPY falls from 160.00 in Wednesday's Asian trading hours, retreating from monthly highs as bulls pause amid fears that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency. However, a lack of clarity on the US-Iran peace talks keeps the US Dollar's reserve-currency status intact amid hawkish Fed bets, limiting the pair's downside.

 The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase on Wednesday, oscillating in a narrow range just below the 160.00 psychological mark, or a one-month high touched during the Asian session. Verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama offers some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with a subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, caps spot prices.

However, economic concerns stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. In contrast, the lack of breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and helps limit downside for the USD/JPY pair.

Crude inventory report

 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed for a third consecutive session, trading near $92.60 per barrel at the time of writing. This price surge follows a fresh escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, where Iran launched ballistic missiles toward neighboring Kuwait and Bahrain. According to ABC News, US Central Command (CENTCOM) successfully intercepted the missile and drone attacks while executing self-defense strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.

WTI trades around $90.15, down 0.89% on Tuesday at the time of writing. Iran suspends message exchanges with the US through mediators. Investors await the weekly API Crude Oil inventory report later in the day.

Gold

 In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,484.03. The metal holds a broadly bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) near $4,575.88 and the 50-day SMA around $4,629.99, keeping prices capped beneath a cluster of short-term trend resistance. The 200-day SMA at roughly $4,422.28 now offers underlying support after being reclaimed, suggesting the broader uptrend is not yet fully compromised, though momentum remains subdued with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering near 42, consistent with a weak recovery rather than an impulsive bounce.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA around $4,576, followed by the 50-day SMA close to $4,630, with the 100-day SMA higher up near $4,800 reinforcing a more substantial supply zone if the rebound extends. On the downside, immediate focus falls on the $4,484 area as a near-term pivot, with the 200-day SMA near $4,422 acting as the next key support, ahead of the prior downtrend-line break region around $4,368, where buyers would need to step in to prevent a deeper corrective slide.

Gold is back in the red early Wednesday, holding below $4,500 after the previous pullback, as sellers retain control amid sustained US Dollar demand and renewed geopolitical concerns. Following a volatile trading day witnessed on Tuesday, Gold is facing fresh headwinds from the ongoing surge in Oil prices as fresh hostilities erupt in the Gulf, fading hopes for a US-Iran peace deal breakthrough and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Cryptoquant: The Onchain Line Behind Every Bitcoin Bottom Sits Near 40%, Short of 'Maximum Opportunity'

 A market-stress gauge that has marked every bitcoin bottom for more than a decade is reading near 40%, a level reflecting meaningful pressure but stops short of the historical “maximum opportunity” zone

The week ahead: Will Payrolls justify American exceptionalism?

 

• Market hopes for a deal are still alive.
• US stocks are on their best run since 2023.
• Growth divergence reflects equity performance.The The 
• AI theme is roaring ahead as we move into June.
• What to watch in the new month.
• Key events in the coming week: Global PMIs, US NFPs, SpaceX hype.
  
  

  At the start of the new week, the oil price is up by 1.5%, and Brent crude is trading above $93 per barrel. This comes after the US and Iran both exchanged fire over the weekend. Stocks have been slightly impacted by this. European futures point to mild losses later this morning, while US equity futures suggest that further gains are coming, extending last week’s record highs.

  Even though there have been attacks from both sides, the market is holding onto the fact that negotiations are ongoing, and an elusive Iran/ US deal to end the war in the Middle East and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will still be found. As the focus switches to a raft of macro releases later this week, investors will need to watch how this plays out, and any delay in reaching a deal could knock market sentiment.

U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc USDCHF CONTINUATION SETUP

 In USDCHF, I’m currently looking for possible short opportunities. On the daily timeframe, the price is closing below a strong multi-rejection zone, which suggests weakening bullish momentum and possible continuation towards the downside.

From the weekly perspective, the last weekly candle closed bearish, adding further confirmation to the bearish higher timeframe bias. In addition to that, price is trading below the 50 EMA as well as the 10–20 EMA cluster on the weekly timeframe, which strengthens the probability of bearish continuation.

There is also a potential liquidity target resting below around the 0.77620 level, where sell-side liquidity may be positioned. That area could act as a possible draw on liquidity if downside momentum continues.

For now, I will wait for proper bearish confirmation and lower timeframe price action before considering any short positions.

No trade until entry conditions are fully satisfied.

British Pound / U.S. Dollar GBPUSD 2H Structure Repetition Setup

 While analyzing the 2H timeframe, I noticed something very interesting. A similar market structure has already formed in the past, and now the market appears to be creating the same pattern once again.

One of the most important skills in trading is recognizing repeated structures. The market often leaves clues through previous price action, and if we can identify those patterns early, it becomes much easier to understand potential future movement.

In this case, the current structure closely resembles the previous setup. That is why I am paying close attention to the marked reaction zone. If the market is truly repeating the same behavior, then this area should attract buyers once again.

For now, my focus is very simple:

Watching the marked reaction zone carefully
Looking for any strong bullish or positive candle confirmation
Monitoring whether the repeated structure continues to play out

If the market forms a strong positive candle from this zone, then we could see another bullish expansion toward the upside, similar to the previous structure.

Of course, structure repetition is not a guarantee, but when price begins to respect the same pattern multiple times, it becomes an area worth monitoring closely.

The key idea here is that traders should train themselves to remember and recognize recurring market structures. The better you become at spotting repeated behavior, the easier it becomes to understand and solve market movements.

This analysis is based on MMC concepts designed by Candle King. His concepts have helped me understand market structure and price behavior with much greater clarity.

Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – Institutional outflow risk further losses

 

• Bitcoin hovers above $73,500 on Monday as institutional outflows aggravate the downside risk.
• Ethereum fluctuates near the $2,000 psychological level, hanging at a cliff edge.
• XRP trades at $1.33 on Monday, floating above the crucial support zone of $1.27.
  
  

  Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) edge lower under pressure on Monday after a steady decline over the last three weeks. US-Iran ceasefire extension dillydally fuels institutional outflows, adding further downside pressure on the crypto market. 

  Bitcoin hovers above $73,000, risking a revisit to $70,000, while Ethereum stands at the edge of the $2,000 psychological support. Ripple follows suit after a bearish close on Sunday, abruptly ending the three-day recovery run.

South African Markets - Factors to watch on June 1

 

SA40−0.38%

The following scheduled economic events, company announcements, equity and currency market moves may affect South African markets on Monday.

ECONOMIC EVENTS

May Absa Manufacturing Sector Purchasing Managers Index

May Car sales

Foreigners' trading in South African bonds and equities

Treasury bill auction

COMPANIES

South Africa's Tiger Brands reports marginal rise in half-year earnings

SOUTH AFRICAN MARKETS

The South African rand was steady on Friday as markets reviewed a range of domestic data for clues on the health of Africa's most industrialised economy.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index SA40 was steady.

GLOBAL MARKETS

Asian share markets firmed on Monday as the boom in all things AI continued to drive demand, offsetting a lack of progress in Gulf peace talks that challenged optimism on a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifted oil prices.

WALL STREET

Wall Street's main indexes hit record closing highs on Friday and posted weekly and monthly gains as Dell results drove tech shares higher, while investors awaited details on a potential U.S.-Iran deal.

GOLD

Gold inched lower on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising crude oil prices, as investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump's decision on a proposed deal to extend the ceasefire with Iran.

Asian stocks gain, Nikkei 225, KOSPI hit fresh record highs on AI optimism

 

• Asian equities advance as tech shares extended gains on continued enthusiasm for the AI-driven rally.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI hit record highs of 67,231 and 8,874, respectively.
• Japanese stocks rise as local firms expand global AI infrastructure, positioning the market to benefit from the tech surge.
  
  

  Asian equities advance on Monday as technology shares extended gains amid continued enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence-driven rally. However, traders may adopt caution due to highly fluid developments surrounding the United States (US)-Iran peace negotiations.

  During the Asian hours, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI hit fresh record highs of 67,231 and 8,874, respectively. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up by 1.04%, trading around 25,450. However, China’s SSE Composite Index falls 0.12% to near 4,060 at the time of writing.

Rupiah Flat as Traders Eye Inflation and Trade Figures

 

USDIDR0USDIDR.TV−0.05%USDIDR−0.05%

The Indonesian rupiah hovered near IDR 17,820 per U.S. dollar on Monday in thin holiday trading, little changed from the prior session as traders awaited May inflation and April trade data due Tuesday.

In April, inflation remained mild, although tensions in the Middle East continued to pose upside risks to prices.

Meanwhile, March's trade surplus was driven more by weak imports than strong exports, highlighting uneven domestic demand and fragile external momentum.

On the policy front, the government pledged greater transparency in a new state-owned firm set to become the sole exporter of key commodities, aiming to boost tax revenues and retain more export proceeds onshore.

Officials hope the move will strengthen U.S. dollar liquidity after the rupiah touched record lows multiple times this year despite Bank Indonesia's mid-May rate hike and other stabilisation measures.

Globally, the dollar index edged higher as uncertainty lingered over prospects for a lasting U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

WTI US Oil Price Forecast: Rises to near $88.50 as Kuwait under attack, uptrend remains intact

 

• WTI price rises to near $88.45 in Monday’s early European session. 
• The Kuwaiti military reported a missile and drone attack, raising fears of prolonged conflict in the Middle East. 
• The constructive outlook remains intact above the key 100-day EMA. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at $95.00; the initial support level is seen at $85.20. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $88.45 during the early European trading hours on Monday. WTI price attracts some buyers following the Kuwaiti military reports of a missile and drone attack. Traders will closely monitor the Middle East developments and the US-Iran peace deal progress.

The Guardian reported on Monday that Kuwait's armed forces said that the country's air defense systems were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks after air raid sirens sounded and emergency alerts were issued nationwide. Minutes after Kuwait reported coming under attack, US Central Command (Centcom) said it had conducted “strikes on Iranian radar and command and control sites for drones” over the weekend.

WTI US Oil Price Forecast: Rises to near $88.50 as Kuwait under attack, uptrend remains intact

 

• WTI price rises to near $88.45 in Monday’s early European session. 
• The Kuwaiti military reported a missile and drone attack, raising fears of prolonged conflict in the Middle East. 
• The constructive outlook remains intact above the key 100-day EMA. 
• The first upside barrier emerges at $95.00; the initial support level is seen at $85.20. 
  
  

  West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $88.45 during the early European trading hours on Monday. WTI price attracts some buyers following the Kuwaiti military reports of a missile and drone attack. Traders will closely monitor the Middle East developments and the US-Iran peace deal progress. 

  The Guardian reported on Monday that Kuwait's armed forces said that the country's air defense systems were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks after air raid sirens sounded and emergency alerts were issued nationwide. Minutes after Kuwait reported coming under attack, US Central Command (Centcom) said it had conducted “strikes on Iranian radar and command and control sites for drones” over the weekend.

Rupee edges higher against US dollar, but oil prices and outflow fears weigh

The Indian rupee opened 3 paise stronger at 94.97 against the US dollar on Monday (June 1), compared with its previous close of 95.00, even as rising crude oil prices and expectations of foreign portfolio outflows weighed on sentiment.

The local currency opened marginally higher despite pressure on Asian currencies after Brent crude oil prices climbed more than 2.5% to around $93.4 per barrel.

The rise followed reports of escalating Israeli military action in Lebanon, which reduced expectations of an imminent extension of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran.

Higher oil prices weighed on regional currencies, with the South Korean won leading losses among Asian peers.

Market participants said the rupee could face pressure from multiple factors, including foreign portfolio outflows, equity index-related adjustments, maturities in the non-deliverable forward market and routine corporate demand for dollars.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net sellers of Indian equities worth more than $2 billion on Friday, according to provisional exchange data.

Traders, however, noted that the Reserve Bank of India's interventions continue to influence the rupee's movement. The central bank's actions have helped the currency recover from its record low of 96.96 per dollar touched in May.

Data released after market hours on Friday (May 29) showed the RBI's short forward dollar commitments declined to $95.3 billion at the end of April from over $100 billion in March. Separately, India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $681 billion in the week ended May 22, marking their lowest level in more than a year.

In a note, IFA Global said the RBI is likely to maintain a firm floor for the rupee as it gradually unwinds its large short dollar forward position. The advisory firm expects the USD/INR pair to trade in the 94.40-96.20 range over the next four to six weeks.

Among key indicators, the dollar index stood at 99.05, while Brent crude futures were up about 2.4% at $93.3 per barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was at 4.47%.