$4000 at risk: Gold sellers refuse to give up amid hot US inflation, Mideast tensions

 Gold pauses its recovery from seven-month lows of $4,024 in Wednesday’s Asian trading, after facing fresh offers above the $4,100 level. Gold sellers refuse to give up despite the continued hostilities in the Middle East.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,062.56, extending a bearish phase as spot gold holds well below its key moving averages. The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,444.89 and the 200-day SMA at $4,446.35 form an immediate resistance band overhead, while the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, at $4,593.14 and $4,773.95 respectively, reinforce a broader topside cap and suggest rallies are likely to be sold. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 23.79 sits in oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet signaling a clear reversal.

Adding credence to the bearish potential, the 21-day SMA is on the verge of cutting the 200-day SMA from above, indicating an impending Bear Cross.

On the topside, initial resistance is clustered around the 21-day SMA at $4,444.89 and the 200-day SMA at $4,446.35; a daily close above this area would be needed to ease immediate selling pressure and allow a corrective recovery toward the 50-day SMA at $4,593.14. Further up, the 100-day SMA at $4,773.95 stands as a more distant barrier that maintains the broader bearish structure while price trades beneath it, leaving the path of least resistance still pointing lower unless these levels are reclaimed

Gold plummets below $4,200 amid US‑Iran tensions ahead of US CPI

 From a technical perspective, the latest leg down confirms a fresh breakdown below a downward-sloping channel extending from the April swing high. Moreover, the precious metal remains entrenched below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), validating the near-term negative outlook and backing the case for further losses.

Moreover, the daily Relative Strength Index (14) near 28 signals oversold conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator deep in negative territory reinforces prevailing bearish momentum. This leaves the Gold price vulnerable to further declines, towards retesting the March swing low, around the $4,100 mark.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the former channel floor around $4,238, followed by the 200-day SMA near $4,444. A recovery back above the latter would begin to ease the broader downside pressure implied by the dominant descending channel and lift the Gold price further to the channel top near $4,546 and the prior swing reference around $4,634

Oil prices fall back after Iran-Israel ceasefire

 The commodity retains a bearish near-term bias below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which acts as the primary topside cap. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line, and a broadly negative profile hints that downside momentum persists. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 suggests subdued demand rather than oversold conditions.

The aforementioned technical setup keeps the door open for further weakness if selling resumes. Meanwhile, the immediate downside focus stays on a strong horizontal support between $86.50 and $86.00. A convincing break below would leave Crude Oil prices vulnerable to renewed selling toward sub-$81.00 levels, or the April monthly swing low.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at $95.25, and bulls would need a sustained recovery above this barrier to ease the prevailing bearish structure on the four-hour chart. Nevertheless, momentum indicators currently argue that rallies are more likely to face selling pressure beneath the medium-term average.

Gold draws support from weaker USD; bulls seem hesitant amid Fed hike bets

 From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown and close below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The subsequent fall, however, showed some resilience near a descending channel support, near $4,270.16. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the said area before positioning for deeper losses.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 35, staying in weak territory without yet signaling an oversold washout. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with subdued momentum, hinting that sellers still have the upper hand but lack aggressive follow-through.

Hence, any recovery attempt is likely to confront stiff resistance near the 200-day SMA at $4,441.10 that bulls would need to reclaim to ease immediate downside pressure, ahead of the channel’s upper boundary around $4,571.21. The latter is a key significant barrier, which should cap the Gold price within a broader bearish structure.

Bitcoin Holds Above $59.1K Low as Short-Term Charts Signal Oversold Bounce Setup

 The 1-hour chart on Bitstamp is showing the most constructive signal of the three timeframes in this analysis. Bitcoin printed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows during the most recent session, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. Price recently tested the $62,950 area before encountering resistance, and immediate support sits at $61,800 with stronger backing in the $60,800 to $61,000 range.

The relative strength index ( RSI) on the shorter timeframe has dropped to 24, a level associated with oversold conditions that historically precede sharp relief moves. However, traders tracking the chart should note that price is approaching resistance after a strong move off the lows, which limits near-term upside conviction without a confirmed close above $62,900 to $63,000.

GBP/USD steadies as increased risk aversion offsets hawkish BoE tone

 From a technical perspective, spot prices hold a capped tone beneath the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and under the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the downfall from the May swing high. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is marginally positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests mild bullish momentum.

That said, momentum indicators have not been sufficient to reclaim the overhead retracement and trend barrier, keeping upside attempts vulnerable for now. Meanwhile, initial resistance is located at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3476, followed closely by the 200-period SMA at 1.3498, with additional hurdles at the 61.8% level at 1.3517 and then 1.3576 and 1.3650.

On the downside, first support emerges at the 38.2% retracement at 1.3435, ahead of the 23.6% level at 1.3384, while a deeper slide would expose the recent swing low area around 1.3302.

USD/JPY retreats from the key 160.00 level on Japanese intervention fears

USD/JPY falls from 160.00 in Wednesday's Asian trading hours, retreating from monthly highs as bulls pause amid fears that Japanese authorities will step in again to prop up the domestic currency. However, a lack of clarity on the US-Iran peace talks keeps the US Dollar's reserve-currency status intact amid hawkish Fed bets, limiting the pair's downside.

 The USD/JPY pair enters a bullish consolidation phase on Wednesday, oscillating in a narrow range just below the 160.00 psychological mark, or a one-month high touched during the Asian session. Verbal intervention by Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama offers some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY), which, along with a subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, caps spot prices.

However, economic concerns stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. In contrast, the lack of breakthrough in US-Iran peace negotiations, along with hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and helps limit downside for the USD/JPY pair.